What the Experts Expect This Hurricane Season

In the wake of a historically active 2010 season, above-average tropical storm activity has again been forecasted for the wide Atlantic basin in 2011. Colorado State University hurricane experts have estimated the probability of a major hurricane striking the U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coastline at 72% (last century’s average was 52%).¹

Hurricane season officially begins June 1 and continues through November 30. Tropical storm activity peaks in August and September, when ocean waters are warmest and circulation in the tropical atmosphere is most prominent. Tropical cyclones begin in the equatorial regions of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans or the Caribbean Sea and travel north. Once a tropical cyclone reaches winds of at least 39 miles per hour, it is typically called a tropical storm and assigned a name. When a tropical cyclone generates winds reaching at least 74 miles per hour, it is called a hurricane (in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Northeast Pacific Ocean).²

Insurers, emergency managers, and others monitor seasonal forecasts to better prepare themselves and the public for the probability of threatening storms. But even if ocean and atmospheric conditions seem to favor the formation of storms in the Atlantic, it is still virtually impossible to predict exactly when or where a powerful storm will come to shore.

Here’s a closer look at the relevance of publicized hurricane forecasts and the insurance coverage that may be available to help protect your home and belongings from these dangerous and often expensive coastal storms.

2011 Forecast

Meteorologists at Colorado State University are forecasting that 16 named storms will form in the Atlantic in 2011. They expect that nine will become hurricanes, five of which will develop into Category 3, 4, or 5 storms with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. This compares with an annual historical average of 10 named storms, six of them hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.³

Last Year’s Scorecard

In 2010, the same scientists called for an above-average season with 15 named storms and eight hurricanes, four of which would develop into major events. Ultimately, researchers observed a total of 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes (the second highest on record), five of them major.⁴ Given the intense amount of storm activity, coastal residents were fortunate that only one tropical storm made landfall and the country did not suffer significant damage.

Insurance Protection

Standard homeowners policies typically cover damage from wind and wind-driven rain, but if your property is subject to flood risk, you may need a separate flood policy in addition to your regular hazard insurance. Currently, flood coverage can be purchased from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) or some private insurers. Congress is responsible for the continued funding of the NFIP, and a short-term extension has been authorized through September 30, 2011.⁵

Keep in mind that your home and its contents should be insured to their full replacement cost; otherwise, it could be very difficult to rebuild the structure at current market prices. If you have remodeled your home or bought new furnishings, inform your insurance agent so that the higher value is reflected in your policy. Updating your home inventory can help you determine whether you have enough insurance to replace all of your belongings, and thorough documentation can help expedite the claims process.

These high-profile predictions are educated guesses that may or may not prove to be accurate, but it only takes one storm in your area to cause extensive damage to your property. With the season now officially under way, it may be a good time to review whether you have the appropriate coverage with your insurance agent.

1, 3–4) Colorado State University, 2011
2) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2011
5) Insurance Information Institute, 2011

The information in this article is not intended as tax or legal advice, and it may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. You are encouraged to seek tax or legal advice from an independent professional advisor. The content is derived from sources believed to be accurate. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. This material was written and prepared by Emerald. © 2011 Emerald Connect, Inc.